.story-content span .story-content p .story-content div color:#000!important;font-family: open sans Arial!important;font-size:15px!important ALSO READ Northeast win gives Modi-Shah push for Lok Sabha fight Congress-mukt India Meghalaya saves Congress the blushes may spell trouble for BJP in Manipur Northeast Assembly election results 2018: BJP read the tea leaves right East turns Right? 10 takeaways of Tripura Meghalaya Nagaland poll results BJP snatches Tripura may form govt in Nagaland; hung Assembly in Meghalaya span.p-content div id = div-gpt line-height:0;font-size:0 Since 2014 the average percentage of votes the Congress drew in six of the seven northeastern states Meghalaya Tripura Nagaland Arunachal Pradesh Assam and Manipur has dropped from 38.1 per cent to 24.7 per cent. The average number of seats it has won has nearly halved from 34.8 to 19.5. Since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power at the Centre in 2014 its average vote share in the northeast has jumped from 3.9 per cent to 27 per cent. From winning an average of 1.5 seats in the six states elections between 2009 and 2014 the BJP has won an average of 23.5 seats in the region since 2014. In the February 2018 elections the BJP s vote share of 27 per cent was only a few percentage points higher than that of the Congress 24.7 per cent. The saffron party however with more seats and by swiftly forming coalitions with regional parties is now part of the governments in all the six states. The two national parties http://samsungmobiles.spruz.com/pt/Digital-marketing-3.8.2018/discussion.htm are yet to contest in Mizoram which is set to go to the polls later this year. The state has not been included in our analysis. Data and text: IndiaSpend Until a year prior to the BJP s win in the 2014 general elections the Congress had enjoyed a considerably larger vote share ranging between 24 per cent and 36 per cent. The BJP had a vote share of below 2 per cent.
NEW DELHI: Though BJP leaders tried to play down the defeat in Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls many accept that it has come as a huge embarrassment and the reason for the loss is not just the SP-BSP tie-up but a host of factors including intraparty equations that have led to this outcome. The Brahmin-Thakur rivalry in the Gorakhpur region unit of BJP is said to be a big reason for the party not fighting the bypoll unitedly. While the candidate Upendra Shukla was chosen by the central leadership the onus of ensuring his victory was on both Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the other faction. The CM held almost two dozen rallies in the constituency but the party cadre did not participate actively in these campaigns. Sources said since BJP chief Amit Shah and his core team were not involved in the campaign the workers at the state and the constituency levels took it easy. Over confidence and complacency seem to have played a key role in the defeat. The low turnout in both the constituencies was the first indication for BJP leaders that it has done badly in the elections. The party has done badly even in the urban assembly segments which are a stronghold of the BJP. The BJP workers had high expectations but are now getting somewhat disillusioned as the ministers in the UP government are not accessible and their grievances are not addressed a party office bearer said. Though Yogi Adityanath has announced several sops for his Lok Sabha constituency over the last one year his failure to ensure victory on his turf has been a bigger embarrassment for him. He accepted that local factors were responsible for the disappointing outcome which has been read by the party as an indication of the party office-bearers working at cross purpose during the campaign. The party is now concerned about cadre disenchantment costing it dear in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The SP-BSP tie-up (with Congress also likely to join in) would mean consolidation of around 45-50% of the votes. In a threecornered contest a candidate needs only around 30%votes to win. With the opposition having drawn lessons from the 2014 elections it is unlikely that it will play into the hands of the BJP. It would suit the opposition to take the elections to the caste equation and not let BJP polarise it. BJP will have to take the outcome seriously and not dismiss it as a mere defeat in a bypoll that would have no bearing on the Lok Sabha seats in UP.
This piece is not primarily about the recently concluded by-elections in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Nor in fact is it about the various Assembly by-elections and elections and parliamentary by-elections held in various states since this Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government came to power in May 2014. It is primarily about the next round of parliamentary elections slated to be held a little over a year from now (though the possibility of it being brought forward exists) and secondarily the major Assembly elections that are to be held this year: in Karnataka Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. A couple of caveats are in order at the outset. First though the focus is on the approaching elections fairly extensive space will be dedicated to what has happened as background without which the rest of this analytical excursion and prognostications will be incomprehensible. Second this political commentator/observer is neither a psephologist nor a pollster thus what will appear in this article is personal analysis albeit one informed by fact and hopefully a simulacrum of logic. File image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. AP Let s begin with the latest round of by-elections which no one will doubt is extremely significant. In Uttar Pradesh the BJP lost two parliamentary seats: Gorakhpur held by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath (and the party for close to a quarter of a century); and Phulpur held by deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. Both the losses were incomprehensible to the party and by and large the commentariat. Three causes were adduced all specious partial or vacuously true. First it was argued that the low turnout compared to 2014 was a major factor; second most people especially party functionaries argued that it was the consolidation of the votes of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party not anticipated by BJP which resulted in the fiasco ; and third as a corollary the consolidation of the Muslim vote (as far as BJP leaders go almost in an accusatory tone). In Gorakhpur the turnout fell by about 8 percent and in Phulpur by 12 percent. The main reason being attributed is an apathetic campaign not overseen by party president Amit Shah or much involving Prime Minister Narendra Modi but left to Chief Minister Adityanath s devices. That could be true; it could also be the case that the Uttar Pradesh government s performance and the BJP s general political and policy trajectories did not enthuse voters to turn up at the booths. Similarly as the pundits have noted arithmetically adding Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party votes would not have overturned the huge margins achieved in 2014 when BJP polled almost 550 000 votes in Gorakhpur and 500 000 in Phulpur. The corresponding figures for Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party put together were 360 000 and 400 000. Given that Samajwadi Party polled correspondingly 456 513 and 342 922 votes this time arithmetically the BJP should have cruised. Clearly a significant section of BJP votes swung: it would not be a stretch to hypothesise that the non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBCs switched their allegiance given BJP s attitude to especially the former and especially in Uttar Pradesh. Given an anti-BJP Dalit consolidation is happening on the ground this is no surprise. Finally a no-brainer: with Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party coming together an anti-BJP Muslim consolidation is something by way of a vacuous truth. The Bihar results went more by the form book: Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) shorn of the politically opportunistic baggage that goes by the name of Nitish Kumar won the Araria parliamentary seat by a reduced margin giving the Bharatiya Janata Party-Janata Dal (United) no quarters and the Jehanabad Assembly seat by an increased margin. The BJP retained the Bhabua Assembly seat. Not too many theories have been doing the rounds in the Bihar case except for the patently fatuous one that RJD leader Lalu Prasad s incarceration generated a sympathy wave . To this writer s way of thinking it s certainly possible that a lot of people in Bihar especially the OBCs and extremely backward castes (EBCs) were seriously put off by the chief minister s repudiation of the mandate given to the alliance of Rashtirya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (United) alliance and the latter s more than obviously orchestrated reconciliation with BJP. That for Kumar it was political suicide is really his problem. But let us also go back a bit to election and by-election results since 2016 mainly by which time Modi and his government had had some time to establish their bona fides although I am putting in some additional data for greater contextual depth. First let us take a look at the results of the state Assembly elections in the following table. Table 1 Year State/Union Territory Winning Party 2014 Jharkhand Haryana Maharashtra J&K BJP in each state 2015 Bihar RJD-JD-U alliance Delhi Aam Aadmi Party 2016 Assam BJP West Bengal Trinamool Congress Kerala Left Front Puducherry Congress Tamil Nadu AIADMK 2017 Goa BJP Gujarat BJP Himachal Pradesh Manipur BJP Punjab BJP with BJP as an adjunct Uttarakhand Congress Uttar Pradesh BJP BJP 2018 Meghalaya Alliance with BJP as an adjunct Nagaland Alliance with BJP as an adjunct Tripura BJP One thing is obvious from this table: though the BJP s winning streak has only slightly been diluted Bihar Delhi West Bengal Kerala Puducherry and Tamil Nadu the character of BJP s victories has changed over time quite apart from the fact that other than in Bihar and Delhi it didn t have the slightest glimmer to begin with. Just after storming to power with a single-party majority for the first time in 30 years electoral matters began proceeding smoothly. Thus 2016 onwards it won 10 out of 14 state elections. But the quality of the victories the tactics used and the party s role in the governments that followed have become skewed. Of the 10 states won only four count as significant: Uttar Pradesh most obviously; Tripura because it was a Left bastion no one believed would be swept away the way it was; Assam because it is the gateway to the North East and BJP has been trying to crack it for a while; and Gujarat because it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi s home state which set the template for his particular brand of governance with a subsequent accent on development and taking credit for developmental achievements when none was due (like developing Gujarat which was one of the most developed states anyway under various mostly Congress regimes). But then Gujarat was not an unqualified victory which is not to suggest that somehow BJP lost morally even though they won electorally. The bottom line is it won and formed a government but that does not hide certain important indicators. Shah had claimed in the run-up to the elections after its sundry attempts at subverting the Opposition including the barely constitutional gambit of having the Election Commission postpone the announcement of dates even after notifying the elections so that the government could announce freebies for certain sections of voters that it would win 150 seats. At least one exit poll put the figure at 116; almost all other pollsters predicted that the ruling party would increase its tally. In the event the party got only 99 seats: there was a considerable shock and awe. Two things the Opposition s unexpected showing proved inter alia were that Congress had started getting its act together and that the alliance with mass movements mainly Hardik Patel s Patidar movement and Jignesh Mevani s Dalit mobilisation could work. More to the point Gujarat showed that time has come when genuine mass movements can cross the border into the realm of elections and make a difference in the formation and conduct of governments (a sort of nav nirman redux not really replicated in about half a century. The other victories were hardly BJP victories as the party piggy-backed on local formations which usually prefer to ally with the party at the Centre especially one with highly developed financial muscle: thus Manipur Meghalaya and Nagaland. Goa was a similar case. Before getting to the nub let s take a look at another set of statistics set out in the following table relating to parliamentary by-elections which are randomly selective and significant; for instance the All India Trinamool Congress winning a by-election in West Bengal is not significant. Table 2 Year Constituency/State Winning party 2016 Shahdol/Madhya Pradesh BJP retained 2017 Chitrakoot/Madhya Pradesh Congress retained Ater/Madhya Pradesh Congress retained 2018 Gorakhpur/Uttar Pradesh SP wrested from BJP Phulpur/Uttar Pradesh Araria/Bihar SP wrested from BJP RJD retained Ajmer/Rajasthan Ajmer/Rajasthan INC wrested from BJP INC wrested from BJP So let me sum up BJP has made no gains in by-elections in key states; in fact in the last three years it has lost seats in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh while a status quo seems to prevail in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. This is not a comprehensive list which would show that BJP s strength in the Lok Sabha (excluding the nominated members) has gone down from 282 to 273. This means that their single-party majority will be skating on thin ice until the parliamentary elections are held which is scheduled about a year from now. More trouble is brewing for BJP. The Telugu Desam Party has quit the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and tabled following the YSR Congress a no-confidence motion against the government. The motion is symbolic because NDA still has the numbers to sail through it around 315. The Shiv Sena with 18 seats has been restive for a while sniping at BJP on a regular basis in its mouthpiece Saamana and other public platforms. It has also declared its intention to contest the 2019 parliamentary and simultaneous Assembly elections solo but its members remain in the Union and the state council of ministers. With Shiv Sena it s difficult to figure out what exactly is going on so this may just be a bargaining ploy. But it has clearly hinted it might abstain during a no-confidence vote prompting Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis to meet a Sena MP in camera to seek support during a no-trust vote. Bihar s Lok Janshakti Party headed by Dalit leader and Cabinet minister Ram Vilas Paswan which has six seats in the lower house is also not in a happy frame of mind. One of its MPs expressed concern about BJP s spate of by-election losses. A couple of smaller allies including Bihar EBC leader Jitan Ram Manjhi have also quit. All NDA allies have one complaint in common: that the ruling party ignores them does not hold consultations with them and some feel that the BJP leadership treats them with disrespect. It is in this context that the four impending state elections this year and if schedules are adhered to the parliamentary elections next year must be viewed. Karnataka will hold elections in a month or so. Most opinion polls suggest that the likely result is a hung Assembly so the Janata Dal (Secular) predicted to make major gains will get to pull the strings. At the end of the year Rajasthan is almost certain to witness a regime change given the by-election results the chief minister s unpopularity even within her own party a curious style of governance and the fact that Congress organisation there has begun to cohere. Madhya Pradesh will also hold elections at the end of the year. The results at this point are too close to call but while Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan has some kind of a track record factors like the Vyapam scam and anti-incumbency may complicate the issue. But then the Congress organisation in the state is not in great shape either. BJP has a greater chance of retaining Chhattisgarh given Chief Minister Raman Singh s popularity but there is no BJP wave and we must remember that in 2013 Congress gave Singh a good enough workout and anti-incumbency will be a factor. What has preceded is not just background but its primary purpose is to try to figure out what will happen in the parliamentary elections in say 2019. My thesis is simple. To put it in one sentence the BJP is bound to lose a substantial number of seats exactly how many will depend on how political trajectories proceed. I ll pull out a few numbers presently. But the basic argument is that in 2014 the BJP maximised its returns from the states where it has real bases and can only lose seats; and the possibility that they will somehow make this up in new states is remote. It is understandable that Shah reiterates the mission 400 claim. Part of his job and that of other politicians is making optimistic or absurd statements of intent depending on how you look at it to galvanise the party cadres (and leaders) and pull in voters. But it is incomprehensible that many media organisations have been saying till recently that BJP could reach 350 in 2019. So let s take a look at the figures. Let us assume not unreasonably that the BJP s core big states are in the north and the west. The number of seats the BJP won and the total number of seats in each of these states are presented in the following table: State Total number of seats Seats won by BJP Bihar 40 22 Chhattisgarh 11 10 Haryana 10 7 Gujarat 26 26 Jharkhand 14 12 Karnataka 28 17 Madhya Pradesh 29 27 Maharashtra 48 23 Punjab 13 2 Rajasthan 25 25 Uttar Pradesh 80 71 Disclaimer: Above table is based on data sourced from PRS India and Election Commission ( includes only those seats which were contested in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls) Adding up the numbers BJP won 242 seats out of 324 in its core areas. If you add two Apna Dal seats in Uttar Pradesh which are BJP s in all but name and those of its ally in Punjab Shiromani Akali Dal (4) and the Shiv Sena (18); and the substantial seats it got in an outlier like Karnataka ie Assam where they got seven out of 14 seats the numbers change to 273 out of 338. The question is: how will the BJP increase seats in these areas? In Rajasthan and Haryana it is bound to lose a majority of seats held and a substantial number in Gujarat. It is difficult to see a replication in Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand where again they are bound to lose seats. In Karnataka they could increase a couple of seats at best; the bigger chance is BJP will lose a few. The party could win a few seats in Punjab but not much is on offer. Given that the ruling party is bound to lose out in the states mentioned above the scale of the debacle will depend on its performance in three other states Maharashtra Bihar and UP. If the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance gels as it did at an incredibly rapid pace in the two seats BJP will be in big trouble. There is a lot of time to put it together; the only problem is that unlike the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar which involved an alliance between two parties with competitive caste bases (Yadavs and Kurmis) in Uttar Pradesh a Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance will involve bringing together caste groups involved in social contradictions. That said it can be pulled off. In Maharashtra if the Shiv Sena irrevocably decides to sever its connection with BJP and contests independently BJP will be gasping for breath given that Congress and Nationalist Congress Party have already started negotiating a fresh alliance. Bihar is difficult to call but it is just about possible that a BJP-JD(U) alliance can pick up a few extra seats though the recent byelections don t suggest that is a done deal. Outside the core areas BJP will pick up nothing substantial: in the east all indications are that the bastions of Odisha and West Bengal will remain completely intact. And there is hardly room to grow seats in Assam (see figures above). The North East combined does not have enough seats for them to arithmetically make a difference and the BJP won t win them anyway. In the south it s much the same story. Which state will BJP break into? It s not going to make any headway in Telangana Tamil Nadu or Kerala. It may pick up a few seats in Andhra Pradesh if there is a four-way contest but don t bet on it. And in Karnataka it is most unlikely to add to its 17 seats. Everything taken together whenever the ruling party decides to hold the parliamentary elections it s going to lose seats: it s simple arithmetic and simple arithmetic is usually right. I won t go so far as predicting a number but I would be very very surprised if BJP (as opposed to the NDA) gets within touching distance of 200 seats.
NEW DELHI: The victory of regional parties in the recent bypolls in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has rung alarm bells for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However it isn t a very good news for the Congress either. Though the party cheered the defeat of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) hopeful of the NDA slowly losing ground before the next Lok Sabha elections the results bring little for it to celebrate. The surprise sweep by the alliance between Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls no doubt indicates viability of a joint front of opposition parties against the NDA. The Congress has already been trying to cobble up such a front. A day before the results United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi hosted leaders of 20 opposition parties to mull over a joint front against the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections next year. But the dismal showing by the Congress and resurgence of regional parties in these elections will increase bargaining power of these parties in a joint front. The revival of regional parties means the Congress will lose its predominant position in the opposition space. The results will boost confidence of the SP BSP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). These parties will set their own terms for the joint front. The Congress has projected its president Rahul Gandhi as an alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi with some success. Rahul emerged as a serious challenger in the Gujarat assembly elections in which the BJP saw erosion of its voter base. The Congress would want other opposition leaders to defer to Rahul in a joint alliance. However encouraged by the bypoll results Akhilesh Yadav Mayawati and Tejaswi Yadav may not allow projection of Rahul as the prime-ministerial candidate. Nor will an ambitious Mamata Banerjee like that prospect. The Gujarat elections had boosted Rahul s image and he was expected to be a dominant leader of an opposition alliance. With the resurgence of regional parties Rahul may get reduced to being just one of the many opposition leaders in a joint front against NDA. Telangana Rashtra Samithi head K Chandrashekhar Rao and Mamata Banerjee have even talked about a non-Congress front of opposition parties against the NDA indicating that these leaders do not want to play a second fiddle to the Congress. Even if the Congress is able to cobble up an opposition alliance it can no longer expect to be the chief arbiter. Assertive regional parties will not just set the terms of a joint front with the Congress but will also have more bargaining power for seat-sharing arrangements with it. If the opposition front defeats the ruling NDA in the next Lok Sabha elections and the Congress wins fewer seats than main opposition parties such as the BSP SP or Trinamool Congress Rahul Gandhi s dream of becoming the prime minister might get deferred indefinitely. That prize can go to the largest opposition party. The victory of SP-BSP alliance and the RJD has come just when Rahul s projection as the main opposition leader was steadily growing through his public speeches and statements on social media. That exercise boosted by the Congress performance in the Gujarat elections may now run out of steam.
In Karnataka the Congress does to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) what is done to the Congress by the BJP elsewhere. The BJP is kept off balance on issues it monopolises in other parts of India. On the issue of nationalism it has been made to squirm by the Congress in Karnataka. On March 8 the Congress government here decided to release a flag for the state. This came after the recommendation of a committee (there was no popular demand for a flag) set up by the government. No other state except of course Jammu and Kashmir has a flag and it s unclear what the ... .bs-title width:195px;padding-right:5px;font-size:11px;font-weight:700;color:#000;line-height:20px;vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block;font-family: Open Sans sans-serif .container-data-resize .top .right .text01 font-size:14px;color:#303030;font-weight:700;padding:0 0 10px 0;width:100%;margin-bottom:0;font-family: Open Sans sans-serif;line-height:20px;text-align:center TO READ THE FULL STORY SUBSCRIBE NOW NOW AT JUST Rs Key stories on business-standard.com are available to premium subscribers only. Already a premium subscriber? LOGIN NOW MONTHLY STAR Business Standard Digital Business Standard Digital Monthly Subscription 74.00 subscribe Complete access to the premium product Convenient Pay as you go Requires you to share your personal information Payment through Credit Card only Auto renewed (subject to your card issuer s permission) Cancel any time in the future Choose Payment Method Pay Using Indian Credit Card (Issued by bank in India) Pay Using International Credit Card (Issued by bank outside India) Note: Subscription will be auto renewed you may cancel any time in the future without any questions asked. Total Amount Rs. 74.00 Requires personal information What you get? ON BUSINESS STANDARD DIGITAL Unlimited access to all the content on any device through browser or app. Exclusive content features opinions and comment hand-picked by our editors just for you. Pick 5 of your favourite companies. Get a daily email with all the news updates on them. Track the industry of your choice with a daily newsletter specific to that industry. Stay on top of your investments. Track stock prices in your portfolio. 18 years of archival data. Requires you to share personal information like date of birth income location amongst other fields. This information alongwith your contact information will be shared with the partners associated with this program who contribute towards subsidizing the offer. By subscribing to this product you acknowledge and accept that our Partners may choose to contact you with offers of their products and services. This is an optional offer - Not comfortable with sharing personal data - please opt for the full price offer which requires you to share minimal information NOTE : The product is a monthly auto renewal product. Cancellation Policy: You can cancel any time in the future without assigning any reasons but 48 hours prior to your card being charged for renewal. We do not offer any refunds. To cancel communicate from your registered email id and send the email with the cancellation request to assist@bsmail.in. Include your contact number for speedy action. Requests mailed to any other ID will not be acknowledged or actioned upon. SMART MONTHLY BS Digital FREE Monthly access to The Wall Street Journal online Business Standard Digital - 1 Month FREE 1 Month access to The Wall Street Journal online 199.00 subscribe FREE across device access to The Wall Street Journal online Convenient Pay as you go Payment through Credit Card only Auto renewed (subject to your card issuer s permission) Cancel any time in the future Exclusive invite to select Business Standard events. Choose Payment Method Pay Using Indian Credit Card (Issued by bank in India) Pay Using International Credit Card (Issued by bank outside India) Note: Subscription will be auto renewed you may cancel any time in the future without any questions asked. Total Amount Rs. 199.00 What you get ON BUSINESS STANDARD DIGITAL Unlimited access to all content on any device through browser or app. Exclusive content features opinions and comment hand-picked by our editors just for you. Pick 5 of your favourite companies. Get a daily email with all the news updates on them. Track the industry of your choice with a daily newsletter specific to that industry. Stay on top of your investments. Track stock prices in your portfolio. 18 years of archival data. ON THE wall street journal online Seamless access to The Wall Street Journal online on any device with your Business Standard Digital account. Experience the best of WSJ s reporting video and interactive features (More business executives read the journal globally than any other publication). Get WSJ s take on people and events shaping business finance technology politics and culture. Get WSJ newsletters in your inbox to make life easier on your busiest days. Your access to The Wall Street Journal online is subject to you not being an existing user of The Wall Street Journal online. Existing users include current or past Premium Users of The Wall Street Journal online. If you happen to be one your subscription will be valid for Business Standard Digital only without any change in the subscription price. NOTE : This product is a monthly auto renewal product. If you have been a past Free/Registered User of The Wall Street Journal online - You will not be eligible for the seamless account creation on The Wall Street Journal online facility. Kindly email us your non-confidential password on The Wall Street Journal online to enable us activate your access from the backend. Cancellation Policy: You can cancel any time in the future without assigning any reasons but 48 hours prior to your card being charged for renewal. We do not offer any refunds. To cancel communicate from your registered email id and send the mail with the request to assist@bsmail.in. Include your contact number for easy reference. Requests mailed to any other ID will not be acknowledged or actioned upon. SMART ANNUAL BS Digital Free 12 Month Access to The Wall Street Journal online Business Standard Digital - 12 Months FREE 12 Months access to The Wall Street Journal online 1999.00 subscribe Get 12 months of The Wall Street Journal online worth Rs 17165 FREE Single Seamless Sign-up to Business Standard Digital and The Wall Street Journal online Convenient - Once a year payment Pay using Credit or Debit Card Exclusive Invite to select Business Standard events Choose Payment Method Pay Using Indian Credit Card (Issued by bank in India) Pay Using International Credit Card (Issued by bank outside India) Note: Subscription will be auto renewed you may cancel any time in the future without any questions asked. Total Amount Rs. 1999.00 What you get ON BUSINESS STANDARD DIGITAL Unlimited access to all content on any device through browser or app. Exclusive content features opinions and comment hand-picked by our editors just for you. Pick your 5 favourite companies. Get a daily email with all the news updates on them. Track the industry of your choice with a daily newsletter specific to that industry. Stay on top of your investments. Track stock prices in your portfolio. 18 years of archival data. ON THE wall street journal online Seamless access to The Wall Street Journal online on any device with your Business Standard Digital account. Experience the best of WSJ s reporting video and interactive features (More business executives read the journal globally than any other publication). Get WSJ s take on people and events shaping business finance technology politics and culture. Get WSJ newsletters in your inbox to make life easier on your busiest days. Your access to The Wall Street Journal online is subject to you not being an existing user of The Wall Street Journal online. Existing users include current or past Premium Users of The Wall Street Journal online. If you happen to be one your subscription will be valid for Business Standard Digital only without any change in the subscription price. NOTE : Saving calculated at the current WSJ price - US 1 for the first 3 months and US 28.99 thereafter Conversion scale 1 US = 65.04 INR If you have been a past Free/Registered User of The Wall Street Journal online - You will not be eligible for the seamless account creation on The Wall Street Journal online facility. Kindly email us your non-confidential password on The Wall Street Journal online to enable us activate your access from the backend. Cancellation Policy: You can cancel any time in the future without assigning any reasons but 48 hours prior to your card being charged for renewal. We do not offer any refunds. To cancel communicate from your registered email id and send the mail with the request to assist@bsmail.in. Include your contact number for easy reference. Requests mailed to any other ID will not be acknowledged or actioned upon. SMART ANNUAL Business Standard Digital Business Standard Digital - 12 Months 1999.00 subscribe Pay as you go Payment though credit card only Auto renewed (Subject to your card issuer s permission) Exclusive invite to select Business Standard events Cancel any time in the future Choose Payment Method Pay Using Indian Credit Card (Issued by bank in India) Pay Using International Credit Card (Issued by bank outside India) Note: Subscription will be auto renewed you may cancel any time in the future without any questions asked. Total Amount Rs. 1999.00 What you get ON BUSINESS STANDARD DIGITAL Unlimited access to all content on any device through browser or app. Exclusive content features opinions and comment hand-picked by our editors just for you. Pick your 5 favourite companies. Get a daily email with all the news updates on them. Track the industry of your choice with a daily newsletter specific to that industry. Stay on top of your investments. Track stock prices in your portfolio. 18 years of archival data. NOTE : Cancellation Policy: You can cancel any time in the future without assigning any reasons but 48 hours prior to your card being charged for renewal. We do not offer any refunds. To cancel communicate from your registered email id and send the mail with the request to assist@bsmail.in Include your contact number for easy reference. Requests mailed to any other ID will not be acknowledged or actioned upon. .related-keyword li float:none!important
The BJP is pulling out all the stops to deny Mayawati s Bahujan Samaj Party a seat in the Rajya Sabha turning the upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh into a big political battle reminiscent of the Rajya Sabha election of Congress leader Ahmed Patel from Gujarat last year. With 324 MLAs of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and 37 needed to win one seat the party can secure eight Rajya Sabha seats from the state with 28 votes to spare. However UP BJP spokesman Rakesh Tripathi said the BJP is extremely determined to win the ninth Rajya Sabha seat . UP BJP spokesman Chandra Mohan said MLAs across party lines will vote for development and considering people s mood for BJP. The BJP s strategy involves bringing all three independent MLAs on its side including Raja Bhaiyya (a known adversary of Mayawati) and Amanmani Tripathi opening talks with Samajwadi Party leader Shivpal Yadav and his loyal MLAs to ensure they don t vote for the BSP and getting an MLA of the NISHAD party and one of Rashtriya Lok Dal parties which backed SP or BSP during the recent bypolls on its side as well. All three independents Shivpal Yadav some SP MLAs and the NISHAD MLA had voted for the BJP during last year s presidential polls. Instead of 324 votes of the NDA MLAs Ram Nath Kovind had got 335 votes due to the cross-voting. The same is expected to be the case in the ninth seat of the Rajya Sabha polls too a senior BJP functionary in the state told ET on condition of anonymity. He said this strategy is expected to ensure that the BSP candidate Bhimrao Ambedkar will stop short of getting 37 MLA votes that would guarantee him a Rajya Sabha seat. He is presently at 36 MLA votes after the son of Naresh Agarwal an SP MLA yesterday (Monday) decided to vote for our candidate. The count will go down further as voting day nears. Second preference votes will then come into the picture and our candidate will sail through the senior BJP functionary said. SP can get its candidate Jaya Bachchan elected with 37 out of its 47 MLAs and shift 10 of its votes to the BSP which has 19 MLAs. The Congress has also pledged support of its seven MLAs to the BSP. That will take the BSP tally to 36 votes and it is expected to get the vote of the RLD MLA as well to sail through with a figure of 37. But on Monday SP leader Naresh Agarwal joined the BJP and his son an SP MLA declared he would vote for the BJP bringing down the BSP figure to 36. Vijay Mishra the Nishad MLA will vote for BJP so will the three independents. The RLD MLA from Chaprauli may also shift to the BJP camp a BJP leader said. Tripathi said that the SP MLAs of the Shivpal Yadav camp might also vote for the BJP. BSP votes did not get transferred to the SP during the bypolls and the results will show that on March 14. SP MLAs enthusiasm to vote for the BSP will hence wane while voting for Rajya Sabha seats. SP would also like to keep some spare votes for its candidate Jaya Bachchan and not transfer all its nine spare MLA votes to the BSP he said.
In a blow to the Opposition in Uttar Pradesh senior Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Naresh Agarwal joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Agarwal addressed a press conference on Monday along with Union minister Piyush Goyal and announced his entry into the BJP. Agarwal in his address to media persons said he is influenced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath. India is on the path to development under Narendra Modi he added. His son Nitin has also joined the BJP. File image of Naresh Agarwal. PTI Speaking about the SP Agarwal said that the party has lost its way in recent times. He also added I have no preconditions for joining the BJP. Please do not say that I am joining the party as I am hopeful of a Rajya Sabha seat or something of that nature. Piyush Goyal said that under the chief ministership of Yogi Adityanath Uttar Pradesh has seen a new era of development. The BJP has emerged as the only alternative for the people and the party is changing the face of the country. I held discussions with Agarwal about his joining the BJP and so did (party president) Amit Shah. Last week the SP named Jaya Bachchan as its Rajya Sabha nominee overlooking Agarwal according to a report in Financial Express. In January 2017 Agarwal refuted reports of his joining the BJP alleging that the party was spreading rumours due to its fear of losing voters among traders as per a PTI report carried by Economic Times Before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections Agarwal in a controversial dig at Narendra Modi said that someone who had worked at a tea shop can never have a national perspective The Times of India reported.
Hitting out at the Congress president Rahul Gandhi s remarks against the BJP during his address at party s plenary session BJP s Nirmala Sitharaman said such remarks sound like the rhetoric of a loser which is devoid of substance. On Rahul Gandhi calling the BJP Kauravas and Congress Pandavas she said that under the Congress party s rule emergency was imposed anti-Sikh riots took place and corruption worth lakhs of crores took place and such a party does not deserve to call itself Pandavas who always stood for the truth. Taking a dig at Rahul Gandhi s remarks at the Congress s plenary session Sitharaman said the party which questioned the fundamental existence of Lord Ram today wants to be identified itself with the Pandavas. She further said that the Congress president who keeps saying that he visits Mandirs and Masjids never spares an opportunity to mock Hindu rituals. I have never http://www.studentenseite.de/members/kkd4int.14094/ heard of a Congress priest and a BJP priest but Rahul Gandhi has narrated a whole story on that just a way to mock Hindus and Hinduism she said. Earlier in the day Rahul Gandji had narrated a story about his meeting and conversation with priests during his visit to a temple. On Rahul Gandhi saying that BJP has accepted a murderer as its president she said that the courts have cleared Amit Shah of all charges and it is Rahul Gandhi who is out on bail in the National Herald fraud case. She went on to say that Rahul Gandhi only eulogises the contribution of one family in the independence of India and undermines the contribution of others like Vir Savarkar. If you don t appreciate his contribution at least don t belittle someone who spent time in Andaman jail during freedom struggle Sitharaman said. Slamming Gandhi for his comments on recent loss suffered by the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar she said: Let us not miss the point... Congress (candidates) lost their deposits in these places. On Rahul Gandhi s remarks on the recent crisis in judiciary she said that the Congress has no right in targeting the BJP over judiciary as people know how Indira Gandhi treated the judiciary after the Allahabad High Court convicted her of electoral malpractices and debarred her from holding any elected post. She also mentioned Rajiv Gandhi s move to introduce the press defamation bill and how during that phase hundreds of cases were filed against journalists. Commenting on farmers woes she said the Congress has no concrete plans to address the crisis. They only bring it up as a poll plank and try to gain political mileage from it.
NEW DELHI: Though BJP leaders tried to play down the defeat in Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls many accept that it has come as a huge embarrassment and the reason for the loss is not just the SP-BSP tie-up but a host of factors including intraparty equations that have led to this outcome. The Brahmin-Thakur rivalry in the Gorakhpur region unit of BJP is said to be a big reason for the party not fighting the bypoll unitedly. While the candidate Upendra Shukla was chosen by the central leadership the onus of ensuring his victory was on both Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the other faction. The CM held almost two dozen rallies in the constituency but the party cadre did not participate actively in these campaigns. Sources said since BJP chief Amit Shah and his core team were not involved in the campaign the workers at the state and the constituency levels took it easy. Over confidence and complacency seem to have played a key role in the defeat. The low turnout in both the constituencies was the first indication for BJP leaders that it has done badly in the elections. The party has done badly even in the urban assembly segments which are a stronghold of the BJP. The BJP workers had high expectations but are now getting somewhat disillusioned as the ministers in the UP government are not accessible and their grievances are not addressed a party office bearer said. Though Yogi Adityanath has announced several sops for his Lok Sabha constituency over the last one year his failure to ensure victory on his turf has been a bigger embarrassment for him. He accepted that local factors were responsible for the disappointing outcome which has been read by the party as an indication of the party office-bearers working at cross purpose during the campaign. The party is now concerned about cadre disenchantment costing it dear in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The SP-BSP tie-up (with Congress also likely to join in) would mean consolidation of around 45-50% of the votes. In a threecornered contest a candidate needs only around 30%votes to win. With the opposition having drawn lessons from the 2014 elections it is unlikely that it will play into the hands of the BJP. It would suit the opposition to take the elections to the caste equation and not let BJP polarise it. BJP will have to take the outcome seriously and not dismiss it as a mere defeat in a bypoll that would have no bearing on the Lok Sabha seats in UP.
This piece is not primarily about the recently concluded by-elections in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Nor in fact is it about the various Assembly by-elections and elections and parliamentary by-elections held in various states since this Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government came to power in May 2014. It is primarily about the next round of parliamentary elections slated to be held a little over a year from now (though the possibility of it being brought forward exists) and secondarily the major Assembly elections that are to be held this year: in Karnataka Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. A couple of caveats are in order at the outset. First though the focus is on the approaching elections fairly extensive space will be dedicated to what has happened as background without which the rest of this analytical excursion and prognostications will be incomprehensible. Second this political commentator/observer is neither a psephologist nor a pollster thus what will appear in this article is personal analysis albeit one informed by fact and hopefully a simulacrum of logic. File image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. AP Let s begin with the latest round of by-elections which no one will doubt is extremely significant. In Uttar Pradesh the BJP lost two parliamentary seats: Gorakhpur held by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath (and the party for close to a quarter of a century); and Phulpur held by deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. Both the losses were incomprehensible to the party and by and large the commentariat. Three causes were adduced all specious partial or vacuously true. First it was argued that the low turnout compared to 2014 was a major factor; second most people especially party functionaries argued that it was the consolidation of the votes of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party not anticipated by BJP which resulted in the fiasco ; and third as a corollary the consolidation of the Muslim vote (as far as BJP leaders go almost in an accusatory tone). In Gorakhpur the turnout fell by about 8 percent and in Phulpur by 12 percent. The main reason being attributed is an apathetic campaign not overseen by party president Amit Shah or much involving Prime Minister Narendra Modi but left to Chief Minister Adityanath s devices. That could be true; it could also be the case that the Uttar Pradesh government s performance and the BJP s general political and policy trajectories did not enthuse voters to turn up at the booths. Similarly as the pundits have noted arithmetically adding Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party votes would not have overturned the huge margins achieved in 2014 when BJP polled almost 550 000 votes in Gorakhpur and 500 000 in Phulpur. The corresponding figures for Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party put together were 360 000 and 400 000. Given that Samajwadi Party polled correspondingly 456 513 and 342 922 votes this time arithmetically the BJP should have cruised. Clearly a significant section of BJP votes swung: it would not be a stretch to hypothesise that the non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBCs switched their allegiance given BJP s attitude to especially the former and especially in Uttar Pradesh. Given an anti-BJP Dalit consolidation is happening on the ground this is no surprise. Finally a no-brainer: with Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party coming together an anti-BJP Muslim consolidation is something by way of a vacuous truth. The Bihar results went more by the form book: Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) shorn of the politically opportunistic baggage that goes by the name of Nitish Kumar won the Araria parliamentary seat by a reduced margin giving the Bharatiya Janata Party-Janata Dal (United) no quarters and the Jehanabad Assembly seat by an increased margin. The BJP retained the Bhabua Assembly seat. Not too many theories have been doing the rounds in the Bihar case except for the patently fatuous one that RJD leader Lalu Prasad s incarceration generated a sympathy wave . To this writer s way of thinking it s certainly possible that a lot of people in Bihar especially the OBCs and extremely backward castes (EBCs) were seriously put off by the chief minister s repudiation of the mandate given to the alliance of Rashtirya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (United) alliance and the latter s more than obviously orchestrated reconciliation with BJP. That for Kumar it was political suicide is really his problem. But let us also go back a bit to election and by-election results since 2016 mainly by which time Modi and his government had had some time to establish their bona fides although I am putting in some additional data for greater contextual depth. First let us take a look at the results of the state Assembly elections in the following table. Table 1 Year State/Union Territory Winning Party 2014 Jharkhand Haryana Maharashtra J&K BJP in each state 2015 Bihar RJD-JD-U alliance Delhi Aam Aadmi Party 2016 Assam BJP West Bengal Trinamool Congress Kerala Left Front Puducherry Congress Tamil Nadu AIADMK 2017 Goa BJP Gujarat BJP Himachal Pradesh Manipur BJP Punjab BJP with BJP as an adjunct Uttarakhand Congress Uttar Pradesh BJP BJP 2018 Meghalaya Alliance with BJP as an adjunct Nagaland Alliance with BJP as an adjunct Tripura BJP One thing is obvious from this table: though the BJP s winning streak has only slightly been diluted Bihar Delhi West Bengal Kerala Puducherry and Tamil Nadu the character of BJP s victories has changed over time quite apart from the fact that other than in Bihar and Delhi it didn t have the slightest glimmer to begin with. Just after storming to power with a single-party majority for the first time in 30 years electoral matters began proceeding smoothly. Thus 2016 onwards it won 10 out of 14 state elections. But the quality of the victories the tactics used and the party s role in the governments that followed have become skewed. Of the 10 states won only four count as significant: Uttar Pradesh most obviously; Tripura because it was a Left bastion no one believed would be swept away the way it was; Assam because it is the gateway to the North East and BJP has been trying to crack it for a while; and Gujarat because it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi s home state which set the template for his particular brand of governance with a subsequent accent on development and taking credit for developmental achievements when none was due (like developing Gujarat which was one of the most developed states anyway under various mostly Congress regimes). But then Gujarat was not an unqualified victory which is not to suggest that somehow BJP lost morally even though they won electorally. The bottom line is it won and formed a government but that does not hide certain important indicators. Shah had claimed in the run-up to the elections after its sundry attempts at subverting the Opposition including the barely constitutional gambit of having the Election Commission postpone the announcement of dates even after notifying the elections so that the government could announce freebies for certain sections of voters that it would win 150 seats. At least one exit poll put the figure at 116; almost all other pollsters predicted that the ruling party would increase its tally. In the event the party got only 99 seats: there was a considerable shock and awe. Two things the Opposition s unexpected showing proved inter alia were that Congress had started getting its act together and that the alliance with mass movements mainly Hardik Patel s Patidar movement and Jignesh Mevani s Dalit mobilisation could work. More to the point Gujarat showed that time has come when genuine mass movements can cross the border into the realm of elections and make a difference in the formation and conduct of governments (a sort of nav nirman redux not really replicated in about half a century. The other victories were hardly BJP victories as the party piggy-backed on local formations which usually prefer to ally with the party at the Centre especially one with highly developed financial muscle: thus Manipur Meghalaya and Nagaland. Goa was a similar case. Before getting to the nub let s take a look at another set of statistics set out in the following table relating to parliamentary by-elections which are randomly selective and significant; for instance the All India Trinamool Congress winning a by-election in West Bengal is not significant. Table 2 Year Constituency/State Winning party 2016 Shahdol/Madhya Pradesh BJP retained 2017 Chitrakoot/Madhya Pradesh Congress retained Ater/Madhya Pradesh Congress retained 2018 Gorakhpur/Uttar Pradesh SP wrested from BJP Phulpur/Uttar Pradesh Araria/Bihar SP wrested from BJP RJD retained Ajmer/Rajasthan Ajmer/Rajasthan INC wrested from BJP INC wrested from BJP So let me sum up BJP has made no gains in by-elections in key states; in fact in the last three years it has lost seats in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh while a status quo seems to prevail in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. This is not a comprehensive list which would show that BJP s strength in the Lok Sabha (excluding the nominated members) has gone down from 282 to 273. This means that their single-party majority will be skating on thin ice until the parliamentary elections are held which is scheduled about a year from now. More trouble is brewing for BJP. The Telugu Desam Party has quit the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and tabled following the YSR Congress a no-confidence motion against the government. The motion is symbolic because NDA still has the numbers to sail through it around 315. The Shiv Sena with 18 seats has been restive for a while sniping at BJP on a regular basis in its mouthpiece Saamana and other public platforms. It has also declared its intention to contest the 2019 parliamentary and simultaneous Assembly elections solo but its members remain in the Union and the state council of ministers. With Shiv Sena it s difficult to figure out what exactly is going on so this may just be a bargaining ploy. But it has clearly hinted it might abstain during a no-confidence vote prompting Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis to meet a Sena MP in camera to seek support during a no-trust vote. Bihar s Lok Janshakti Party headed by Dalit leader and Cabinet minister Ram Vilas Paswan which has six seats in the lower house is also not in a happy frame of mind. One of its MPs expressed concern about BJP s spate of by-election losses. A couple of smaller allies including Bihar EBC leader Jitan Ram Manjhi have also quit. All NDA allies have one complaint in common: that the ruling party ignores them does not hold consultations with them and some feel that the BJP leadership treats them with disrespect. It is in this context that the four impending state elections this year and if schedules are adhered to the parliamentary elections next year must be viewed. Karnataka will hold elections in a month or so. Most opinion polls suggest that the likely result is a hung Assembly so the Janata Dal (Secular) predicted to make major gains will get to pull the strings. At the end of the year Rajasthan is almost certain to witness a regime change given the by-election results the chief minister s unpopularity even within her own party a curious style of governance and the fact that Congress organisation there has begun to cohere. Madhya Pradesh will also hold elections at the end of the year. The results at this point are too close to call but while Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan has some kind of a track record factors like the Vyapam scam and anti-incumbency may complicate the issue. But then the Congress organisation in the state is not in great shape either. BJP has a greater chance of retaining Chhattisgarh given Chief Minister Raman Singh s popularity but there is no BJP wave and we must remember that in 2013 Congress gave Singh a good enough workout and anti-incumbency will be a factor. What has preceded is not just background but its primary purpose is to try to figure out what will happen in the parliamentary elections in say 2019. My thesis is simple. To put it in one sentence the BJP is bound to lose a substantial number of seats exactly how many will depend on how political trajectories proceed. I ll pull out a few numbers presently. But the basic argument is that in 2014 the BJP maximised its returns from the states where it has real bases and can only lose seats; and the possibility that they will somehow make this up in new states is remote. It is understandable that Shah reiterates the mission 400 claim. Part of his job and that of other politicians is making optimistic or absurd statements of intent depending on how you look at it to galvanise the party cadres (and leaders) and pull in voters. But it is incomprehensible that many media organisations have been saying till recently that BJP could reach 350 in 2019. So let s take a look at the figures. Let us assume not unreasonably that the BJP s core big states are in the north and the west. The number of seats the BJP won and the total number of seats in each of these states are presented in the following table: State Total number of seats Seats won by BJP Bihar 40 22 Chhattisgarh 11 10 Haryana 10 7 Gujarat 26 26 Jharkhand 14 12 Karnataka 28 17 Madhya Pradesh 29 27 Maharashtra 48 23 Punjab 13 2 Rajasthan 25 25 Uttar Pradesh 80 71 Disclaimer: Above table is based on data sourced from PRS India and Election Commission ( includes only those seats which were contested in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls) Adding up the numbers BJP won 242 seats out of 324 in its core areas. If you add two Apna Dal seats in Uttar Pradesh which are BJP s in all but name and those of its ally in Punjab Shiromani Akali Dal (4) and the Shiv Sena (18); and the substantial seats it got in an outlier like Karnataka ie Assam where they got seven out of 14 seats the numbers change to 273 out of 338. The question is: how will the BJP increase seats in these areas? In Rajasthan and Haryana it is bound to lose a majority of seats held and a substantial number in Gujarat. It is difficult to see a replication in Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand where again they are bound to lose seats. In Karnataka they could increase a couple of seats at best; the bigger chance is BJP will lose a few. The party could win a few seats in Punjab but not much is on offer. Given that the ruling party is bound to lose out in the states mentioned above the scale of the debacle will depend on its performance in three other states Maharashtra Bihar and UP. If the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance gels as it did at an incredibly rapid pace in the two seats BJP will be in big trouble. There is a lot of time to put it together; the only problem is that unlike the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar which involved an alliance between two parties with competitive caste bases (Yadavs and Kurmis) in Uttar Pradesh a Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance will involve bringing together caste groups involved in social contradictions. That said it can be pulled off. In Maharashtra if the Shiv Sena irrevocably decides to sever its connection with BJP and contests independently BJP will be gasping for breath given that Congress and Nationalist Congress Party have already started negotiating a fresh alliance. Bihar is difficult to call but it is just about possible that a BJP-JD(U) alliance can pick up a few extra seats though the recent byelections don t suggest that is a done deal. Outside the core areas BJP will pick up nothing substantial: in the east all indications are that the bastions of Odisha and West Bengal will remain completely intact. And there is hardly room to grow seats in Assam (see figures above). The North East combined does not have enough seats for them to arithmetically make a difference and the BJP won t win them anyway. In the south it s much the same story. Which state will BJP break into? It s not going to make any headway in Telangana Tamil Nadu or Kerala. It may pick up a few seats in Andhra Pradesh if there is a four-way contest but don t bet on it. And in Karnataka it is most unlikely to add to its 17 seats. Everything taken together whenever the ruling party decides to hold the parliamentary elections it s going to lose seats: it s simple arithmetic and simple arithmetic is usually right. I won t go so far as predicting a number but I would be very very surprised if BJP (as opposed to the NDA) gets within touching distance of 200 seats.
NEW DELHI: The victory of regional parties in the recent bypolls in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has rung alarm bells for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However it isn t a very good news for the Congress either. Though the party cheered the defeat of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) hopeful of the NDA slowly losing ground before the next Lok Sabha elections the results bring little for it to celebrate. The surprise sweep by the alliance between Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls no doubt indicates viability of a joint front of opposition parties against the NDA. The Congress has already been trying to cobble up such a front. A day before the results United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi hosted leaders of 20 opposition parties to mull over a joint front against the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections next year. But the dismal showing by the Congress and resurgence of regional parties in these elections will increase bargaining power of these parties in a joint front. The revival of regional parties means the Congress will lose its predominant position in the opposition space. The results will boost confidence of the SP BSP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). These parties will set their own terms for the joint front. The Congress has projected its president Rahul Gandhi as an alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi with some success. Rahul emerged as a serious challenger in the Gujarat assembly elections in which the BJP saw erosion of its voter base. The Congress would want other opposition leaders to defer to Rahul in a joint alliance. However encouraged by the bypoll results Akhilesh Yadav Mayawati and Tejaswi Yadav may not allow projection of Rahul as the prime-ministerial candidate. Nor will an ambitious Mamata Banerjee like that prospect. The Gujarat elections had boosted Rahul s image and he was expected to be a dominant leader of an opposition alliance. With the resurgence of regional parties Rahul may get reduced to being just one of the many opposition leaders in a joint front against NDA. Telangana Rashtra Samithi head K Chandrashekhar Rao and Mamata Banerjee have even talked about a non-Congress front of opposition parties against the NDA indicating that these leaders do not want to play a second fiddle to the Congress. Even if the Congress is able to cobble up an opposition alliance it can no longer expect to be the chief arbiter. Assertive regional parties will not just set the terms of a joint front with the Congress but will also have more bargaining power for seat-sharing arrangements with it. If the opposition front defeats the ruling NDA in the next Lok Sabha elections and the Congress wins fewer seats than main opposition parties such as the BSP SP or Trinamool Congress Rahul Gandhi s dream of becoming the prime minister might get deferred indefinitely. That prize can go to the largest opposition party. The victory of SP-BSP alliance and the RJD has come just when Rahul s projection as the main opposition leader was steadily growing through his public speeches and statements on social media. That exercise boosted by the Congress performance in the Gujarat elections may now run out of steam.
In Karnataka the Congress does to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) what is done to the Congress by the BJP elsewhere. The BJP is kept off balance on issues it monopolises in other parts of India. On the issue of nationalism it has been made to squirm by the Congress in Karnataka. On March 8 the Congress government here decided to release a flag for the state. This came after the recommendation of a committee (there was no popular demand for a flag) set up by the government. No other state except of course Jammu and Kashmir has a flag and it s unclear what the ... .bs-title width:195px;padding-right:5px;font-size:11px;font-weight:700;color:#000;line-height:20px;vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block;font-family: Open Sans sans-serif .container-data-resize .top .right .text01 font-size:14px;color:#303030;font-weight:700;padding:0 0 10px 0;width:100%;margin-bottom:0;font-family: Open Sans sans-serif;line-height:20px;text-align:center TO READ THE FULL STORY SUBSCRIBE NOW NOW AT JUST Rs Key stories on business-standard.com are available to premium subscribers only. Already a premium subscriber? LOGIN NOW MONTHLY STAR Business Standard Digital Business Standard Digital Monthly Subscription 74.00 subscribe Complete access to the premium product Convenient Pay as you go Requires you to share your personal information Payment through Credit Card only Auto renewed (subject to your card issuer s permission) Cancel any time in the future Choose Payment Method Pay Using Indian Credit Card (Issued by bank in India) Pay Using International Credit Card (Issued by bank outside India) Note: Subscription will be auto renewed you may cancel any time in the future without any questions asked. Total Amount Rs. 74.00 Requires personal information What you get? ON BUSINESS STANDARD DIGITAL Unlimited access to all the content on any device through browser or app. Exclusive content features opinions and comment hand-picked by our editors just for you. Pick 5 of your favourite companies. Get a daily email with all the news updates on them. Track the industry of your choice with a daily newsletter specific to that industry. Stay on top of your investments. Track stock prices in your portfolio. 18 years of archival data. Requires you to share personal information like date of birth income location amongst other fields. This information alongwith your contact information will be shared with the partners associated with this program who contribute towards subsidizing the offer. By subscribing to this product you acknowledge and accept that our Partners may choose to contact you with offers of their products and services. This is an optional offer - Not comfortable with sharing personal data - please opt for the full price offer which requires you to share minimal information NOTE : The product is a monthly auto renewal product. Cancellation Policy: You can cancel any time in the future without assigning any reasons but 48 hours prior to your card being charged for renewal. We do not offer any refunds. To cancel communicate from your registered email id and send the email with the cancellation request to assist@bsmail.in. Include your contact number for speedy action. Requests mailed to any other ID will not be acknowledged or actioned upon. SMART MONTHLY BS Digital FREE Monthly access to The Wall Street Journal online Business Standard Digital - 1 Month FREE 1 Month access to The Wall Street Journal online 199.00 subscribe FREE across device access to The Wall Street Journal online Convenient Pay as you go Payment through Credit Card only Auto renewed (subject to your card issuer s permission) Cancel any time in the future Exclusive invite to select Business Standard events. Choose Payment Method Pay Using Indian Credit Card (Issued by bank in India) Pay Using International Credit Card (Issued by bank outside India) Note: Subscription will be auto renewed you may cancel any time in the future without any questions asked. Total Amount Rs. 199.00 What you get ON BUSINESS STANDARD DIGITAL Unlimited access to all content on any device through browser or app. Exclusive content features opinions and comment hand-picked by our editors just for you. Pick 5 of your favourite companies. Get a daily email with all the news updates on them. Track the industry of your choice with a daily newsletter specific to that industry. Stay on top of your investments. Track stock prices in your portfolio. 18 years of archival data. ON THE wall street journal online Seamless access to The Wall Street Journal online on any device with your Business Standard Digital account. Experience the best of WSJ s reporting video and interactive features (More business executives read the journal globally than any other publication). Get WSJ s take on people and events shaping business finance technology politics and culture. Get WSJ newsletters in your inbox to make life easier on your busiest days. Your access to The Wall Street Journal online is subject to you not being an existing user of The Wall Street Journal online. Existing users include current or past Premium Users of The Wall Street Journal online. If you happen to be one your subscription will be valid for Business Standard Digital only without any change in the subscription price. NOTE : This product is a monthly auto renewal product. If you have been a past Free/Registered User of The Wall Street Journal online - You will not be eligible for the seamless account creation on The Wall Street Journal online facility. Kindly email us your non-confidential password on The Wall Street Journal online to enable us activate your access from the backend. Cancellation Policy: You can cancel any time in the future without assigning any reasons but 48 hours prior to your card being charged for renewal. We do not offer any refunds. To cancel communicate from your registered email id and send the mail with the request to assist@bsmail.in. Include your contact number for easy reference. Requests mailed to any other ID will not be acknowledged or actioned upon. SMART ANNUAL BS Digital Free 12 Month Access to The Wall Street Journal online Business Standard Digital - 12 Months FREE 12 Months access to The Wall Street Journal online 1999.00 subscribe Get 12 months of The Wall Street Journal online worth Rs 17165 FREE Single Seamless Sign-up to Business Standard Digital and The Wall Street Journal online Convenient - Once a year payment Pay using Credit or Debit Card Exclusive Invite to select Business Standard events Choose Payment Method Pay Using Indian Credit Card (Issued by bank in India) Pay Using International Credit Card (Issued by bank outside India) Note: Subscription will be auto renewed you may cancel any time in the future without any questions asked. Total Amount Rs. 1999.00 What you get ON BUSINESS STANDARD DIGITAL Unlimited access to all content on any device through browser or app. Exclusive content features opinions and comment hand-picked by our editors just for you. Pick your 5 favourite companies. Get a daily email with all the news updates on them. Track the industry of your choice with a daily newsletter specific to that industry. Stay on top of your investments. Track stock prices in your portfolio. 18 years of archival data. ON THE wall street journal online Seamless access to The Wall Street Journal online on any device with your Business Standard Digital account. Experience the best of WSJ s reporting video and interactive features (More business executives read the journal globally than any other publication). Get WSJ s take on people and events shaping business finance technology politics and culture. Get WSJ newsletters in your inbox to make life easier on your busiest days. Your access to The Wall Street Journal online is subject to you not being an existing user of The Wall Street Journal online. Existing users include current or past Premium Users of The Wall Street Journal online. If you happen to be one your subscription will be valid for Business Standard Digital only without any change in the subscription price. NOTE : Saving calculated at the current WSJ price - US 1 for the first 3 months and US 28.99 thereafter Conversion scale 1 US = 65.04 INR If you have been a past Free/Registered User of The Wall Street Journal online - You will not be eligible for the seamless account creation on The Wall Street Journal online facility. Kindly email us your non-confidential password on The Wall Street Journal online to enable us activate your access from the backend. Cancellation Policy: You can cancel any time in the future without assigning any reasons but 48 hours prior to your card being charged for renewal. We do not offer any refunds. To cancel communicate from your registered email id and send the mail with the request to assist@bsmail.in. Include your contact number for easy reference. Requests mailed to any other ID will not be acknowledged or actioned upon. SMART ANNUAL Business Standard Digital Business Standard Digital - 12 Months 1999.00 subscribe Pay as you go Payment though credit card only Auto renewed (Subject to your card issuer s permission) Exclusive invite to select Business Standard events Cancel any time in the future Choose Payment Method Pay Using Indian Credit Card (Issued by bank in India) Pay Using International Credit Card (Issued by bank outside India) Note: Subscription will be auto renewed you may cancel any time in the future without any questions asked. Total Amount Rs. 1999.00 What you get ON BUSINESS STANDARD DIGITAL Unlimited access to all content on any device through browser or app. Exclusive content features opinions and comment hand-picked by our editors just for you. Pick your 5 favourite companies. Get a daily email with all the news updates on them. Track the industry of your choice with a daily newsletter specific to that industry. Stay on top of your investments. Track stock prices in your portfolio. 18 years of archival data. NOTE : Cancellation Policy: You can cancel any time in the future without assigning any reasons but 48 hours prior to your card being charged for renewal. We do not offer any refunds. To cancel communicate from your registered email id and send the mail with the request to assist@bsmail.in Include your contact number for easy reference. Requests mailed to any other ID will not be acknowledged or actioned upon. .related-keyword li float:none!important
The BJP is pulling out all the stops to deny Mayawati s Bahujan Samaj Party a seat in the Rajya Sabha turning the upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh into a big political battle reminiscent of the Rajya Sabha election of Congress leader Ahmed Patel from Gujarat last year. With 324 MLAs of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and 37 needed to win one seat the party can secure eight Rajya Sabha seats from the state with 28 votes to spare. However UP BJP spokesman Rakesh Tripathi said the BJP is extremely determined to win the ninth Rajya Sabha seat . UP BJP spokesman Chandra Mohan said MLAs across party lines will vote for development and considering people s mood for BJP. The BJP s strategy involves bringing all three independent MLAs on its side including Raja Bhaiyya (a known adversary of Mayawati) and Amanmani Tripathi opening talks with Samajwadi Party leader Shivpal Yadav and his loyal MLAs to ensure they don t vote for the BSP and getting an MLA of the NISHAD party and one of Rashtriya Lok Dal parties which backed SP or BSP during the recent bypolls on its side as well. All three independents Shivpal Yadav some SP MLAs and the NISHAD MLA had voted for the BJP during last year s presidential polls. Instead of 324 votes of the NDA MLAs Ram Nath Kovind had got 335 votes due to the cross-voting. The same is expected to be the case in the ninth seat of the Rajya Sabha polls too a senior BJP functionary in the state told ET on condition of anonymity. He said this strategy is expected to ensure that the BSP candidate Bhimrao Ambedkar will stop short of getting 37 MLA votes that would guarantee him a Rajya Sabha seat. He is presently at 36 MLA votes after the son of Naresh Agarwal an SP MLA yesterday (Monday) decided to vote for our candidate. The count will go down further as voting day nears. Second preference votes will then come into the picture and our candidate will sail through the senior BJP functionary said. SP can get its candidate Jaya Bachchan elected with 37 out of its 47 MLAs and shift 10 of its votes to the BSP which has 19 MLAs. The Congress has also pledged support of its seven MLAs to the BSP. That will take the BSP tally to 36 votes and it is expected to get the vote of the RLD MLA as well to sail through with a figure of 37. But on Monday SP leader Naresh Agarwal joined the BJP and his son an SP MLA declared he would vote for the BJP bringing down the BSP figure to 36. Vijay Mishra the Nishad MLA will vote for BJP so will the three independents. The RLD MLA from Chaprauli may also shift to the BJP camp a BJP leader said. Tripathi said that the SP MLAs of the Shivpal Yadav camp might also vote for the BJP. BSP votes did not get transferred to the SP during the bypolls and the results will show that on March 14. SP MLAs enthusiasm to vote for the BSP will hence wane while voting for Rajya Sabha seats. SP would also like to keep some spare votes for its candidate Jaya Bachchan and not transfer all its nine spare MLA votes to the BSP he said.
In a blow to the Opposition in Uttar Pradesh senior Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Naresh Agarwal joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Agarwal addressed a press conference on Monday along with Union minister Piyush Goyal and announced his entry into the BJP. Agarwal in his address to media persons said he is influenced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath. India is on the path to development under Narendra Modi he added. His son Nitin has also joined the BJP. File image of Naresh Agarwal. PTI Speaking about the SP Agarwal said that the party has lost its way in recent times. He also added I have no preconditions for joining the BJP. Please do not say that I am joining the party as I am hopeful of a Rajya Sabha seat or something of that nature. Piyush Goyal said that under the chief ministership of Yogi Adityanath Uttar Pradesh has seen a new era of development. The BJP has emerged as the only alternative for the people and the party is changing the face of the country. I held discussions with Agarwal about his joining the BJP and so did (party president) Amit Shah. Last week the SP named Jaya Bachchan as its Rajya Sabha nominee overlooking Agarwal according to a report in Financial Express. In January 2017 Agarwal refuted reports of his joining the BJP alleging that the party was spreading rumours due to its fear of losing voters among traders as per a PTI report carried by Economic Times Before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections Agarwal in a controversial dig at Narendra Modi said that someone who had worked at a tea shop can never have a national perspective The Times of India reported.
Hitting out at the Congress president Rahul Gandhi s remarks against the BJP during his address at party s plenary session BJP s Nirmala Sitharaman said such remarks sound like the rhetoric of a loser which is devoid of substance. On Rahul Gandhi calling the BJP Kauravas and Congress Pandavas she said that under the Congress party s rule emergency was imposed anti-Sikh riots took place and corruption worth lakhs of crores took place and such a party does not deserve to call itself Pandavas who always stood for the truth. Taking a dig at Rahul Gandhi s remarks at the Congress s plenary session Sitharaman said the party which questioned the fundamental existence of Lord Ram today wants to be identified itself with the Pandavas. She further said that the Congress president who keeps saying that he visits Mandirs and Masjids never spares an opportunity to mock Hindu rituals. I have never http://www.studentenseite.de/members/kkd4int.14094/ heard of a Congress priest and a BJP priest but Rahul Gandhi has narrated a whole story on that just a way to mock Hindus and Hinduism she said. Earlier in the day Rahul Gandji had narrated a story about his meeting and conversation with priests during his visit to a temple. On Rahul Gandhi saying that BJP has accepted a murderer as its president she said that the courts have cleared Amit Shah of all charges and it is Rahul Gandhi who is out on bail in the National Herald fraud case. She went on to say that Rahul Gandhi only eulogises the contribution of one family in the independence of India and undermines the contribution of others like Vir Savarkar. If you don t appreciate his contribution at least don t belittle someone who spent time in Andaman jail during freedom struggle Sitharaman said. Slamming Gandhi for his comments on recent loss suffered by the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar she said: Let us not miss the point... Congress (candidates) lost their deposits in these places. On Rahul Gandhi s remarks on the recent crisis in judiciary she said that the Congress has no right in targeting the BJP over judiciary as people know how Indira Gandhi treated the judiciary after the Allahabad High Court convicted her of electoral malpractices and debarred her from holding any elected post. She also mentioned Rajiv Gandhi s move to introduce the press defamation bill and how during that phase hundreds of cases were filed against journalists. Commenting on farmers woes she said the Congress has no concrete plans to address the crisis. They only bring it up as a poll plank and try to gain political mileage from it.
No comments:
Post a Comment